The EUR/USD currency pair has been on a downward trajectory, with a five-swing structure from the July 2 high indicating further weakness. This bearish sequence, an incomplete sequence from the January 27, 2026 peak, suggests that the pair is poised for additional downside. The projected target zone, defined by the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the January 27 high, falls between 1.076 and 1.117. This extension range provides a precise technical framework for anticipating the next leg lower.
From the July 2 high, wave ((i)) concluded at 1.139 as a diagonal structure. A corrective rally in wave ((ii)) terminated at 1.146, after which the pair resumed its downward trajectory in wave ((iii)). The internal subdivision of wave ((iii)) is unfolding as another five-wave impulse. Within this structure, wave (i) ended at 1.138, while wave (ii) retraced to 1.145. These developments confirm that the decline remains active and incomplete. As long as the pivot at 1.147 holds, the rally should fail in 3 or 7 swings, and EUR/USD is expected to continue pressing lower. A decisive break below the June 24 low at 1.1324 is required to eliminate the possibility of a double correction.
One thing that immediately stands out is the precision of the Fibonacci extension range. What many people don't realize is that this range provides a clear technical framework for anticipating the next leg lower. In my opinion, this is a fascinating development, as it suggests that the pair is following a predictable pattern. However, what makes this particularly fascinating is the fact that the Fibonacci extension range is just one of many technical indicators that are suggesting a bearish bias.
From my perspective, the five-swing structure from the July 2 high is particularly interesting. This structure reinforces the bearish bias and signals additional weakness. What this really suggests is that the pair is likely to continue pressing lower in the near term. However, a detail that I find especially interesting is the fact that the corrective rally in wave ((ii)) terminated at 1.146, which is very close to the pivot at 1.147. This raises a deeper question: is the pair about to break out of the bearish pattern and resume its upward trajectory?
If you take a step back and think about it, it's clear that the EUR/USD pair is facing significant downward pressure. The bearish sequence from the January 27 peak and the five-swing structure from the July 2 high are both suggesting that the pair is likely to continue pressing lower. However, one thing that many people don't realize is that the pair has been in a bearish trend for quite some time now. This trend has been driven by a combination of economic factors, including the strong US dollar and the weak eurozone economy.
In my opinion, the EUR/USD pair is likely to continue pressing lower in the near term. However, what this really suggests is that the pair is facing significant downward pressure, which could lead to a more significant correction. If you take a step back and think about it, it's clear that the pair is facing a number of headwinds, including the strong US dollar and the weak eurozone economy. This raises a deeper question: is the pair about to break out of the bearish pattern and resume its upward trajectory?
One thing that immediately stands out is the fact that the pair has been in a bearish trend for quite some time now. This trend has been driven by a combination of economic factors, including the strong US dollar and the weak eurozone economy. What makes this particularly fascinating is the fact that the pair has been in a bearish trend for so long, yet it continues to press lower. This suggests that the pair is facing significant downward pressure, which could lead to a more significant correction.
